Gold holds $4,000 as Fed hawkishness offsets renewed Gulf risk - Kitco PM Report

Spot gold and silver prices are firmer late Thursday as lower Treasury yields and a softer U.S. dollar helped metals rebound from Wednesday’s selloff while traders reassessed U.S.-Iran risk in the Strait of Hormuz. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,027.40 an ounce, up 0.73%, while spot silver was trading near $57.800, up 0.87% on the session.

The U.S. data mix helped stabilize the metals complex after three sessions of forced de-risking. May PCE inflation rose 0.4% on the month and 4.1% from a year earlier, while core PCE rose 0.3% on the month. The 10-year Treasury yield slipped to the 4.4% area and the two-year yield traded near 4.12%, easing one pressure point for non-yielding assets, while stock-index futures advanced after the inflation data.

The June 17 Federal Reserve meeting remains the positioning anchor. The FOMC held the federal-funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the updated projections lifted the median 2026 funds-rate path to 3.8% from 3.4% in March and raised the 2026 PCE inflation projection to 3.6% from 2.7%. That has kept gold and silver rallies short-covering-led rather than conviction-led, with traders still pricing a higher-for-longer policy path. 

The Strait of Hormuz trade is no longer a one-way closure shock, but it remains a live headline risk for gold, oil and rates. Brent crude fell earlier to $72.24 a barrel, back near prewar levels, after tanker traffic through the strait doubled over 24 hours and vessels resumed transiting with satellite signals switched on. Late-session headlines then shifted the tone after a Singapore-flagged cargo ship attack in the strait, lifting oil prices about 2% and reviving a smaller geopolitical bid in gold. The immediate panic premium has faded, but the market is still assigning value to gold as insurance against a renewed shipping shock.

The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading around the $70 area, while Brent crude was in the mid-$70s after touching $72.24 earlier in the session. The U.S. dollar index is lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.4% area.